Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to Week 10 of Wagers with Stacks! We’ve got a nice set of games lined up for this weekend including some pivotal conference matchups, some ranked teams facing off against rivals, and also a Top 10 showdown that will create some separation in the SEC East. Let’s take a quick look at how last week played out and where we are on the year.
Week 9: 2-3
2019 Season: 16-17-2
We’re still hovering back and forth each week right around that 50% mark. This week I’ve added a couple extra games to the slate of picks. Week 10…Let’s get after it!
#14 Michigan (-21.5) @ Maryland
I’m not too sure why I continue to throw Michigan games into my weekly picks. I believe they are responsible for 5 of my losses on the year. I should probably just avoid them, but my stubbornness rivals that of Roy McAvoy trying to clear the water on the 18th hole at the U.S. Open. So here we are…Michigan is coming off their biggest win of the season as they upset Notre Dame last week in convincing fashion. Maryland finds itself searching for consistency coming into this matchup. At times, the Terrapins have looked very impressive, and then there have been other times in the season where you just have to sit back and scratch your head and wonder what they are doing. The spread on this game opened at 16.5 and has climbed all the way to 21.5 without any signs of slowing down. Even with that large of a spread, 83% of the money on spread wagers are going in favor of the Wolverines. I don’t think that Michigan completely lays an egg, but they’re coming off a huge win and they’ve still got that one on their mind. Give me Maryland at +21.5 and let’s hope that early season version of Maryland shows up on Saturday.
#8 Georgia (-6) vs. #6 Florida
These two have had plenty of time to plan for each other as both teams are coming off a bye in what should be the matchup of the week. Call me crazy, but I’m still not overly convinced that Florida is worthy of a #6 ranking. We’ve got a classic “Pros vs. Joes” situation going on so far from a Vegas perspective. Only 28% of the spread wagers that have been made are going in favor of the Bulldogs, however 58% of the money on spread wagers are on Georgia. So that tells me that your average Joe is taking Florida to cover, but the people making the larger wagers are on Georgia. I’m going to keep an eye on the numbers as we lead up to kickoff because I could see the money swing either direction. For me, at this point I feel like I have to take Georgia. It pains me to cheer for fan base where grown men bark at opposing fans, but it’s the smart play here. Give me the Dogs at -6.
Miami @ Florida State (-3.5)
These programs have seen better days. Both come into the conference rivalry game with 4-4 records looking to become one step closer to bowl eligibility. From just watching these two teams play a few times throughout the year, I would probably take Miami. However, 80% of money on spread wagers and 68% of money on moneyline bets are going in the direction of the Hurricanes. Because of that, I’m going to stick to my contrarian ways and go with my head instead of my heart. I am going to buy it down half of a point though just in case. Give me Florida State at -3.
#22 Kansas State (-6) @ Kansas
Kansas has lost ten straight times against Kansas State. Les Miles is attempting to resurrect this abysmal Kansas football program, and to the surprise of many he is actually showing some promise. Both teams are coming off upset victories as the Wildcats shocked the world with their win over Oklahoma and the Jayhawks knocked off Texas Tech. Many bettors are all in on the Les Miles train this week, and that makes sense considering they’ve played well at home. On top of that, this is a classic hangover spot for Kansas State after a huge win. 61% of money on spread wagers and 92% of money on moneyline bets are falling in favor of the Jayhawks. Again, I’m going with the contrarian play here, but I also think that Kansas State is a better football team and should win this one. Give me K-State at -6.
UAB @ Tennessee (-12.5)
Tennessee has found new life, and a bowl game is definitely on the table after one of the worst starts in school history. In order to get to that bowl game, the Vols need to win 3 out of their next 4. As long as Tennessee plays like they have over the last few weeks, they should be favored in almost every game down the stretch. UAB comes into this matchup with a 6-1 record, but it’s been a fairly easy road for them up to this point. The Blazers are a “good” football team, but unfortunately Georgia State ruined this one for them. The Vols are just tuned in right now and they aren’t going to overlook another non-Power 5 opponent. The spread opened at -13.5 and then dipped all the way down to -9 at one point before climbing back up to -12.5. 74% of all wagers being made are in favor of Tennessee. I don’t care about that in this one. I’m a homer…give me the Big Orange at -12.5.
#15 SMU @ Memphis (-5.5)
The Pony Express is back in full swing! SMU is undefeated at 8-0 for the first time since receiving the dreadful NCAA death penalty in 1987. Memphis is right there as well at 7-1. However, they lost two weeks ago at home to Temple and probably should have lost last week to Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane missed a 29-yard FG as time expired. In addition to all the hype leading into this matchup, it is also going to play host to ESPN’s College Gameday show. Despite the Tigers’ recent struggles, they still come in as a 5.5 point favorite and many bettors are on board with that number. 73% of money on spread wagers and 58% of moneyline wagers are in favor of Memphis. I’m not sure who wins this game outright, but I think it will be a close one. Give me the undefeated Mustangs at +5.5.
#7 Oregon (-4.5) @ USC
Oregon has pulled off seven in a row and hasn’t lost a game since Week 1 when they lost a neutral site game to Auburn. USC’s season has been more of a roller coaster with many highs and lows. Both teams still control their own destiny and have a shot to meet up again in the Pac-12 Championship game. As of Thursday morning, only 39% of spread wagers had been made in favor of USC, however 68% of the money was on the Trojans. Since there haven’t been many bets made yet on this game, there’s not a huge “Pros vs. Joes” situation going on here, but enough for it to grab my attention. The Pac-12 always seems to find a way to eliminate itself from the College Football Playoff and this feels like a game where they continue to drive that wedge. Give me USC in the Coliseum at +4.5.
Well, that’s another week in the books. Good luck to all the gamblers out there and remember…scared money doesn’t win!
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