Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to Week 11 of Wagers with Stacks! The College Football Playoff Poll is officially out! Not that it means all that much at this point in the year, but it does stir up some drama and it means that we are inching closer to the end of the year and bowl season. Week 11 features another great slate of games that include showdowns with playoff implications, ranked matchups, and what may be the game of the year. Before we dive into that, let’s take a quick look at last week’s results.
Week 9 Record: 3-4
2019 Overall Record: 19-21-2
A few quick thoughts from last week…
- I can’t get over the .500 hump if my life depended on it.
- I have finally swallowed my pride and will not bet another Michigan game for the rest of the year…maybe.
Alright, now that we’re past that…Week 11! Let’s get it!
Florida State @ Boston College (-2)
Florida State is a mess right now. Since their loss to Miami last week, they have parted ways with Willie Taggart, and his short tenure with the Seminoles has come to an abrupt ending. Both of these teams have had their inconsistencies throughout the year, and I am sure that this Seminole team will want to play motivated football this week and just focus on things that happen on the field. However, I just don’t see how that is going to be possible. In all of the whirlwind of firing a coach and the rumors swirling about multiple coaches coming in with the last name Stoops, I imagine the distractions are at an all-time high in Tallahassee. I’m a little confused how Florida State opened as a 1-point favorite in this game, but for now it has settled at BC -2. In Vegas, 65% of spread bets are currently falling in favor of the Eagles. I’m on board with that in this one. Look for AJ Dillion to play a big part in this one on a cold day in Massachusetts. I’ll take the Eagles at -2 all day.
#4 Penn State (-6.5) @ #17 Minnesota
Both teams enter this matchup coming off bye weeks, and both teams have perfect 8-0 records. However, Minnesota’s schedule has been very favorable up to this point and are just getting into the meat of their schedule. Minnesota’s head coach, P.J. Fleck was rumored to be a candidate for the Florida State job earlier this week before the Golden Gophers signed him to a new seven-year contract on Tuesday. Penn State was a bit of a surprise this week in the first CFP poll of the year as they were ranked #4 ahead of defending CFP champion, Clemson. Bettors are almost evenly split on this game as 52% of spread wagers are backing the Nittany Lions. For me, I look at the coaching matchup in this one…James Franklin vs. P.J. Fleck. Personally, I’m not a big fan of Fleck and think that Franklin can coach circles around him. Maybe it’s his Butch Jones-esque way of throwing out catchy phrases and his constant “coach speak”, but I am not sold. Go ahead Mr. Fleck and row that boat, but I’m not on board. Give me Penn State at -6.5.
#2 LSU @ #3 Alabama (-6.5)
Bama vs. LSU. Nick Saban vs. Ed Orgeron. Two undefeated teams with a national championship or bust mentality. This one has all the ingredients of an all-time great matchup and I’m sure the environment will feel like a playoff game. In the grand scheme of things, history suggests the loser of this game could have the easier road to the CFP if this is a close one and everything falls the right way. But don’t expect either team to have that mindset…they aren’t very fond of each other and both want that SEC West Championship as the first notch on their belt heading into the postseason. Currently, 65% of spread bets and 80% of moneyline wagers are going in favor of LSU. The LSU hype is real! I really like Coach O and the new LSU offense that Joe Burrow has flourished in this year. However, to be the best you have to beat the best, and Nick Saban is the best. Both teams have had an extra week to prepare for each other and I think that gives Saban and the Tide a slight advantage. Obviously, the health of Tua is going to play a huge role, but I fully expect him to be out there on Saturday. Give me Saban at home with Donald Trump in attendance, but I’m going to buy it down to -6 just in case.
#18 Iowa @ #13 Wisconsin (Over/Under: 37.5)
I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. It’s Big 10 football and you’ve got two teams that traditionally run the ball and play good defense. However, at the end of the day 81% of all Over/Under bets in this one are favoring the Under. Full contrarian play here, but I’m pulling for some offense between these two and am taking the Over at 37.5.
Tennessee @ Kentucky (-1)
This one is a bit of a head-scratcher all around. The line opened at Kentucky at -4, but quickly jumped the fence and went to Tennessee -1. The line has now jumped the fence yet again and is back to Kentucky -1. Needless to say, the money has been coming in waves. Currently, 53% of spread wagers and 84% of moneyline bets are taking the Wildcats. Tennessee has some questions to answer as far as who is going to play QB and whether or not their offense decides to show up, but they’ve got some good momentum rolling and have a potential bowl bid in their sights even after a 1-4 start. Kentucky has a few questions to answer as well. One of those also being who will play QB, and the other, which seems to be a growing distraction, is will Mark Stoops bolt for Florida State? I’m going to side with the momentum in this one and hope that Tennessee can keep it going. Give me the Vols at +1.
Iowa State @ #9 Oklahoma (-14)
I’ll get right to the point for this one as well. I feel bad for Iowa State. Oklahoma losing last week is only going to sharpen their focus for the rest of the year and also is going to cause them to win convincingly every chance that they get. That is going to start this week at home against an average Iowa State team. The Cyclones have been known to knock off some big-time teams at home over the years, but this game is in Norman and that’s not going to happen. Surprisingly, there haven’t been a lot of wagers made on this game yet, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that line climbs. Get it at -14 while you can, but I expect Oklahoma in a rout.
That will wrap up Week 11! Let’s get back over 50% this week! Good luck to all the gamblers out there.
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