Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to Week 13 of College Football and this week’s edition of Wagers with Stacks! Up to this point, the year hasn’t played out exactly how I was hoping that it would. However, we’ve still got two weeks of the regular season, conference championship games, and bowl games to climb out of the red. That’s plenty of time to turn this thing around!
2019 Season: 21-25-2
Week 13 is a doozy! We’ve got one Top 10 conference matchup, as well as many other ranked teams in action with conference and playoff implications all across the board. Let’s jump right in. Week 13…here we go!
#8 Penn State @ #2 Ohio State (-18.5)
This spread seems a little high at first glance. However, Ohio State has been firing on all cylinders, and Penn State is coming off a loss to Minnesota and a game last week against Indiana where they struggled. Bettors don’t seem to be scared of taking the large home favorite as 62% of spread wagers are currently in favor of the Buckeyes. I would love to see Ohio State get knocked off its perch and lose this game at home, but I just don’t think Penn State has that kind of firepower. I do think that James Franklin will have his team ready for this one though and I expect it to be closer than a three-possession game. Give me Penn State at +18.5.
#10 Minnesota @ Northwestern (Over/Under: 39)
For the first time this season, we will get to see how Minnesota reacts after a loss, and they will have to do so against a struggling Northwestern team. I’m not a big fan of P.J. Fleck, but he definitely proved me wrong a couple weeks ago against Penn State. For the record, I still think that the guy is a fraud. The Over/Under for this game is currently sitting at 39 and 76% of all wagers on the total are on the under. I know Northwestern plays better at home and their defense can be stingy at times, but I also like for Minnesota to try and make a statement after their loss last week. I’ll take the side of Vegas in this one.
Give me the Over at 39.
Texas A&M @ #4 Georgia (-13.5)
Both teams come into this matchup riding a 4-game win streak. Texas A&M is 7-3 with all of their losses against very good opponents (Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama). Georgia has essentially wrapped up the SEC East and should face LSU in the SEC Championship game in two weeks. However, don’t expect Georgia to overlook anyone the rest of the way as they have a College Football Playoff birth right at their fingertips. In Vegas, 69% of spread bets are favoring the Bulldogs at -13.5. I think that the Aggies are better than many people give them credit for and this battle between Jimbo and Kirby could be one for the ages. I expect Georgia to pull out the victory, but A&M to put up a fight. Cover yourself and buy it up half a point. Aggies +14.
#13 Michigan @ Indiana (Over/Under: 54.5)
I promised a few weeks ago that I would avoid Michigan for the rest of the season because I’m 0 for the century this year when I bet their games. I am going to halfway honor that promise and not bet a side, but I’m going to take the Total. Currently, the Over in this game is getting hammered. 93% of all wagers are going in that direction, so what am I going to do? Go. The. Other. Way. Aside from the fact that this one is super one-sided, I think that Indiana is very under rated and they are difficult to beat at home. Combine that with the fact that Michigan is facing off next week against Ohio State and there is a perfect recipe for a low-scoring slugfest. Give me the Under 54.5.
Arkansas @ #1 LSU (-42)
Yea, that’s not a typo. It’s one of the highest, if not the highest point spreads I’ve ever seen for an SEC conference game. And the fact that it started at -44 and has gone down two points is mind blowing. I know Arkansas is bad, but 42?!? You want to know what’s even crazier? I’m actually going to take it. 88% of all spread wagers are on Arkansas, so I’m going to very unconfidently side with the more than 7 TD blow out in this one. Give me that Cajun’ speaking wild man and his Tigers at -42…I think.
Tennessee @ Missouri (-4)
This game has been a real head-scratcher for me all week. How Missouri is a 5-point favorite really confuses me. They have lost four games in a row and haven’t scored more than 14 points since October 12th. On the other side of the coin, the Vols have won four of their last five and have outscored their opponents 108-51 in those four victories. Yes, Kelly Bryant is back from injury, but he’s still not 100%. Tennessee proved Vegas wrong last week, and I believe that they’ll do it again. 57% of spread wagers are going in favor of the Vols. That scares me a little bit, but not enough for me not to bet it. My blood bleeds orange…give me the Vols at +4 and while you’re at it, throw some money on them to win outright if you want to capitalize on the odds!
Well, that’s a wrap for Week 13. Good luck to all the gamblers out there!
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