Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to the Week 9 edition of Wagers with Stacks! Week 9 is loaded with ranked match-ups and conference showdowns. Before we dive into the slate of picks for this week, let’s take a quick glance at how Week 8 finished up and where we stand overall on the year.
Week 8 Record: 4-1
2019 Overall Record: 14-14-2
After a big week, we’ve climbed out of the gutter and are back to even! Let’s keep this momentum rolling into Week 9 and throughout the rest of the season. Without further ado, here we go…Week 9!
#13 Wisconsin @ #3 Ohio State (-14.5)
Ohio State enters this Big Ten match-up with an undefeated record. In fact, they haven’t even been truly challenged yet this season as they have outscored their opponents 348-56 through their first seven games. Wisconsin is coming off their first loss of the season as they were upset last week on the road against unranked Illinois. When a team slips up and needs a bounce back game the next week, Ohio State isn’t exactly the team that you want to see lined up on the other side of the field. Since the spreads were released earlier this week, 63% of the spread wagers and 90% of the moneyline wagers are in favor of the Buckeyes. I don’t think that the Badgers pull off the upset, but this will be the biggest challenge that Ohio State has faced so far this season. The Badgers have a bad taste in their mouth after last week and they’ll come out swinging. I like Wisconsin to keep it close. Give me the Badgers at +14.5.
#9 Auburn @ #2 LSU (-11)
The battle of the Tigers! LSU comes into this SEC Top 10 showdown at an undefeated 7-0. They’ve looked dominant all year and many people are predicting them to be the winner of the SEC and possibly even the CFP when the books are closed on this season. Auburn’s only slip up came two weeks ago in the Swamp against the Florida Gators. Bo Nix will once again be put into a rowdy environment on the road and Joe Burrow is looking to continue his Heisman-type season. From a Vegas perspective, 60% of spread wagers and 80% of moneyline bets are going in the direction of the Tigers…the LSU Tigers. When I first saw that this game was the 3:30 CBS game and not a night game, I was shocked. Night games in Death Valley over the years give the Tigers an undeniable advantage against their opponents. Since 2015, the Tigers are 20-4 under the lights at home, and 2 of those losses were against Alabama. I think that LSU gets the win, but I don’t expect it to be by two TDs. They’ve got a bye week next week and then the showdown against #1 Alabama. They’re not looking ahead to where they lose this one, but they’re looking ahead. Give me the Plainsmen at +11.
South Carolina (-4.5) @ Tennessee
Both teams are coming off losses in which they felt like they were fighting an uphill battle against SEC officials. South Carolina lost QB Jake Bentley early in the season and have been relying on their offensive line and RB Rico Dowdle for most of the season. This week, they’ll be without Dowdle and will need back-up QB Ryan Hilinski to step up yet again. Tennessee also has injury problems of their own as Freshman QB Brian Maurer is looking more and more doubtful as the week goes on. A starter hasn’t been named, but if Maurer is a no-go then it’ll have to be Jarrett Guarantano or true Freshman JT Shrout who has seen limited snaps. Bettors seem to be siding with the Gamecocks in this one as 81% of spread bets and 83% of moneyline wagers are in favor of Muschamp’s squad. It’s not hard to see why they’d think that given that Will Muschamp is 7-0 as a head coach against the Vols (4-0 at Florida and 3-0 so far at South Carolina). It may be the fan in me, but the Vols seem to have turned a corner over the last three weeks. They’ve got a lot of confidence and momentum. Give me the Vols at +4.5.
#8 Notre Dame (-1) @ #19 Michigan
Notre Dame comes into this one at 5-1 with their only loss being to Georgia. Michigan is coming off a loss at Penn State where they played what may have been their best game of the year. Michigan has been a team this year that has given me fits. Every time I think that they are going to come out of the hole and play the way they were expected to all year, they fall flat on their faces. When I think they are going to get blown out, they find a way to cover. For most of the season, they’ve been my kryptonite. As of Thursday morning, 71% of all spread bets and 65% of moneyline wagers are going towards the Fighting Irish. I’m going to side with the public. I don’t care if it’s at home. I don’t care if they kept it close on the road against Penn State. Give me Notre Dame at -1.
#24 Arizona State (-3.5) @ UCLA
Things haven’t gone the way that UCLA wanted in Chip Kelly’s second season as the Bruins’ head coach. They are 2-5 and have looked pathetic in most of their games this season. However, they are still in contention in the wide-open Pac-12 South. Arizona State is coming off a 21-3 loss at Utah, and is also trying to make a push in the right direction towards a Pac-12 South championship. There’s not much on the moneyline so far for this contest, but 58% of bettors like the Sun Devils and the spread. Chip Kelly vs. Herm Edwards….if you would’ve mentioned that a few years ago, I believe most people would have taken Chip Kelly without hesitation. However, Edwards has proven that his hard-nosed, disciplined style of football can work at the college level. I like the Sun Devils to bounce back and take care of business. I’m buying it down ½ a point just in case. Arizona State -3.
Well, that’s it folks. Another week in the books. Let’s keep this momentum rolling in the right direction. Good luck to all the bettors out there!
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